Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Posted: Tue Feb 18, 2025 6:28 am
Chart: The growth rate of social financing in the government sector rebounded to . in September, but the growth rate of social financing in the private sector fell to . in September, and the decline in residents was faster
Chart: From the perspective of broad fiscal deficit, the first and second quarters of this year were weaker than the same period last year, but has recovered since July
Looking ahead to , the credit cycle and finance will still be the key sweden phone number list to judging market trends. After all, the main cause of the current downward demand, sluggish inflation, weak credit, and the resulting poor profitability is still credit contraction refer to the chart for the specific framework.
Looking ahead, we believe that under the "reality constraints" of high leverage, interest rates and exchange rates and the "stresstype" response function of policy, there will be incremental stimulus, but excessive expectations are not realistic unless external pressure increases. Therefore, although growth and profits are guaranteed, the extent is limited, and the market has not completely escaped from the volatile pattern. The shift in structure to "gradually deploying on the left side of the depression and making moderate profits on the right side of the excitement" seems to be a more effective strategy. In terms of industry allocation, it is recommended to focus on three categories: industry clearance, policy support, and stable returns .
Chart: From the perspective of broad fiscal deficit, the first and second quarters of this year were weaker than the same period last year, but has recovered since July
Looking ahead to , the credit cycle and finance will still be the key sweden phone number list to judging market trends. After all, the main cause of the current downward demand, sluggish inflation, weak credit, and the resulting poor profitability is still credit contraction refer to the chart for the specific framework.
Looking ahead, we believe that under the "reality constraints" of high leverage, interest rates and exchange rates and the "stresstype" response function of policy, there will be incremental stimulus, but excessive expectations are not realistic unless external pressure increases. Therefore, although growth and profits are guaranteed, the extent is limited, and the market has not completely escaped from the volatile pattern. The shift in structure to "gradually deploying on the left side of the depression and making moderate profits on the right side of the excitement" seems to be a more effective strategy. In terms of industry allocation, it is recommended to focus on three categories: industry clearance, policy support, and stable returns .